NBA best bets for Sunday: 9 expert picks for Game 1s

Heat vs. Celtics

Sunday, April 21, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Celtics -13.5 (BetMGM)

By Michael Fiddle

This is a betting system play called "NBA First Round Favorites." In a betting system, you look for a set of criteria to be met to trigger a bet. Here, we meet all the requirements to make a system play on the Celtics ATS: We have a 1 or 2 seed, as the Celtics are the 1 seed, in a first round NBA playoff matchup with a spread of -4 or greater.

Check it all off, and bet into Celtics -13.5 to cover — a line that as of the time of this writing was only live at BetMGM. The system has a 60% cover rate and 18% ROI going back to 2005. Thats elite, so lets back it.

Pick: Celtics -13.5

Heat +14 (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

I genuinely do not care that the Miami Heat just played Friday, that they're without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, and that the Boston Celtics are so well rested — anything beyond 11.5 points, I was grabbing Miami to cover.

Erik Spoelstra is 11-4 in Game 1s since LeBron James left the team in 2014 and 4-2 in Game 1s on the road not counting the bubble playoffs, which technically would've added another four, although… we know the circumstances.

The Heat covered better than every team on the road in the NBA this season outside of Dallas and Golden State at 25-15-2 against the spread and 17-9 ATS as a road underdog, second only to the Pelicans. Boston was 22-17-2 ATS as a home favorite, ninth in the league.

Ultimately, Boston should whoop Miami and everyone else in the Eastern Conference, but that's just not how this goes anymore, and the Heat — 14-9 without Jimmy Butler this year — have absolutely no pressure in this series so long as Butler is out.

They're going to play loose, they're going to play faster, and they're going to play with a level of toughness that this rivalry commands. I think they lose in five or six, but I like them to cover in Game 1 against a team who hasn't played a serious game since early March, who are going into a fight without having sparred in weeks.

Pick: Heat +14

Heat +14.5 (ESPN BET)

By Maltman

The Heat are flying into Boston, and Boston has had a ton of rest and prep for the playoffs. They should be ready and prepared to take on a team without Jimmy Butler that embarrassed them in the conference finals last year. This line opened at 11.5 and has already moved to 14.5 at the far end at ESPN Bet.

If the Celtics are an all time great team, they will sweep the Heat and destroy them Game 1. The problem is I don't think they are an all time great team. This is a huge line for a team that is 3-6 in their last nine series openers and didn’t win any of those those games by 15 points. The last time they did that was in August of 2020 in the bubble.

I expect a zone that throws off Tatum, some questionable decisions in the clutch, and a lot of shooting and turnovers from Jaylen Brown. Either this Celtics team is going to prove me wrong or be who we have seen them be time and time again: a very good team that isn’t the best.

Pick: Heat +14.5

Mavericks vs. Clippers

Sunday, April 21, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Mavericks Moneyline (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I like the Mavs to win the series, I sprinkled on them to win the West, I like them to beat anyone in the conference except for Denver — even that's not impossible — and I've thought the Clippers were overrated once y'all tried giving them the West in January.

Kawhi Leonard's status is in question, Luka Doncic destroys this team, and Dallas finally has a defense worthy of being serious contenders.

Give me Dallas in this game and the series — which I still like even if they lose Sunday.

Pick: Mavericks Moneyline

Pacers vs. Bucks

Sunday, April 21, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Pacers -1.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is doubtful for this game and Damian Lillard (groin/abductor) still hasn't been officially ruled in despite practicing Saturday. But even with the Bucks at full strength, this is a tough matchup for Milwaukee against a fast and athletic Pacers team that likes to run-and-gun. The Bucks are 23rd in defensive transition frequency, meaning they allow the eighth most transition opportunities, while Indiana is seventh in transition chances on offense.

During the regular season, the Pacers were 17-12 straight up versus teams that were bottom-10 in transition frequency for 15.7 percent ROI. Even in the context of a slower playoff setting, the Pacers are second in half-court offense, behind only the 66-18 Boston Celtics. They should easily outscore Milwaukee who scores nearly 10 fewer points per 100 possession with Giannis off the floor.

The Pacers are playable to -3.5 without Giannis and -6.5 if Dame is also ruled out.

Pick: Pacers -1.5

Tyrese Haliburton over 24.5 Points+Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Bucks generally play drop defense, which remained effective when they had Jrue Holiday; however, the perimeter defense with Damian Lillard has been brutal. The Bucks lack a true point-of-attack defender, and they are generally tied to their defensive scheme due to their personnel.

The Bucks have been torched by lead guards this season and Tyrese Haliburton is one of them. In five games against the Bucks, Haliburton has averaged 27.0 points, 11.0 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.

I’m targeting his 24.5 PR. He has exceeded this in every game against the Bucks this season. While there is consistency with the scoring, there is significant upside with the rebounds. He has logged 6, 7, 5, 9 and 2 rebounds with an average of 9.4 rebound chances – those chances represent a nearly 50% uptick from the 6.7 he averages on the season, per NBA Advanced Stats. I like the combo prop here because I can capture the upside of both stats in a plus and fast-paced matchup.

Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 24.5 Points+Rebounds

Pelicans vs. Thunder

Sunday, April 21, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Thunder -8.5

By Michael Fiddle

Like Heat vs Celtics above, this game also meets all the criteria for a First Round Favorites System Play. The Thunder are the 1 seed, playing as favorites in the first round with a spread of -4 or greater. This system has a 60% hit rate, 18% ROI dating back to 2005.

Parity does not exist as much as we think it does during the regular season, and the biggest talent gap shows early in the playoffs. An 18% ROI is better than what I do on my own caps, so I back this system when I can!

Pick: Thunder -8.5

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

I love this Pelicans team, but I’m lower on them for the postseason. One of their primary strengths during the regular season was depth, which is a lot less impactful when rotations get tighter and top end talent is relied upon more heavily in the playoffs. Add to the fact the Pelicans are missing Zion Williamson, their most talented player, and coming off of two extra Play-In Tournament games, and that’s a bad spot against a rested and fully healthy Thunder team.

I came into the postseason generally lower on the Thunder, but their regular season profile is one of a dominant playoff performer. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Thunder have the second-best Halfcourt Offensive and Defensive Ratings—an excellent recipe for postseason success.

I question their experience and think they’re exploitable due to their lack of size, but against the Pelicans coming off two hard-fought Play-In Tournament games, I think OKC has a clear edge in Game 1, and I like them down to -9.5.

Pick: Thunder -8.5 (Bet to -9.5)

Jonas Valanciunas under 20.5 Points+Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Jim Turvey

The New Orleans Pelicans head to Oklahoma City on Sunday for Game 1 of their series as the eight seed trying to knock off the top seeded Thunder.

One pivotal matchup in the series is going to be the center position. In Jonas Valanciunas and Chet Holmgrem, the two teams couldn't have more different centers. JV is an old school, back down bully, while Chet is a rail-thin stretch big. There's a very decent chance that one of these coaches is going to have to switch their main play style and limit minutes for one of these guys.

Given that: A) Chet is the more positively impactful player at this moment, despite being just a rookie, and B) three is more than two, and C) Pelicans coach Willie Green has shown he knows this and isn't afraid to banish JV against small ball teams, I'm going with JV as the more likely to see his minutes cut into — even though the Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson.

I'd love to see a game to be sure of this, but his prop line will change if that's the case, and there's always the possibility of adjustments off of adjustments, and the banishment not lasting.

So I'm going to try to get ahead of it by fading Jonas Valanciunas' props on Sunday in Game 1.

Pick: Jonas Valanciunas under 20.5 Points+Rebounds

Brandon Ingram over 5.5 Assists (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Pelicans escaped the Play-In Tournament and look to take down the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday without Zion Williamson, and one player who should step up is Brandon Ingram. Without Zion, the offense runs significantly more through Ingram, and the team can get Trey Murphy a few more minutes as well.

One area that Ingram sees a spike is in assists. On the season, Ingram averages 5.7 assists on 10.4 potentials per game, but without Zion this ticks up to 6.3 on 12.5 potentials. While this matchup against OKC is not an easy one, OKC does play fast, which gives a few extra possessions as well.

The 5.5 assists line is one Ingram has exceeded in seven of 10 games without Zion this season, including nine assists on 19 potentials against this same Thunder team. Ingram looks healthy, and he should see plenty of time on the floor. I expect Ingram to continue being the focal point of the Pelicans’ offense.

Pick: Brandon Ingram over 5.5 Assists